I’ve been thinking a lot lately about assumptions — specifically, the assumptions we make about people who’ve left the church or never joined in the first place.
If you’re like me, you’ve probably constructed a mental image of the typical “none” — that growing segment of Americans who check “no religious affiliation” on surveys. Maybe you picture a young person who’s been hurt by the church. Or an angry atheist ready to debate. Or perhaps a free spirit doing yoga at sunrise, burning sage, consulting Tarot cards, and posting about their spiritual journey on Instagram.
Friends, I need to tell you something: most of those assumptions are wrong. And the pioneering research from the Nones Project proves it might be the most critical data about American spirituality in a generation.
The Largest Study of Its Kind
Last year, researchers Ryan Burge and Tony Jones conducted the most comprehensive survey of religiously unaffiliated Americans ever attempted. They polled over 12,000 “nones” — atheists, agnostics, and those who claim no faith in particular — and what they found challenges almost everything I thought I knew.
Using artificial intelligence to analyze the data, they discovered that the 100 million Americans with no religious affiliation aren’t one thing at all. There are four very different groups with radically different relationships to faith, meaning, and transcendence.
And here’s where it gets interesting.
Surprise #1: Twenty Million “Nones” Pray Every Day
The researchers call them “NiNos” — Nones in Name Only. They account for about 21% of the unaffiliated, meaning roughly 20 million Americans fall into this category.
These people pray daily. Many believe in God without doubt. A third of them show up at church at least once a year. They look, by almost every measurable behavior, like religious Americans.
So why don’t they identify with a religion?
That’s the question that haunts me. Somewhere along the way, 20 million people who pray and believe decided that our churches weren’t for them — or couldn’t find language for the faith they already have. They don’t hate religion. They don’t distrust God. They just... don’t belong anywhere.
I wonder what that says about us.
Surprise #2: The “Spiritual But Not Religious” Aren’t Really That Spiritual
This one genuinely startled me.
We’ve all met someone who says, “I’m not religious, but I’m very spiritual.” It’s become almost a cliché of contemporary American life. And this group is large — 36% of all nones, about 36 million people.
But here’s what the researchers found when they dug into actual practices: the vast majority aren’t doing anything spiritual at all.
They asked about yoga, meditation, crystals, Tarot cards, nature rituals — all the things we associate with alternative spirituality. And the SBNRs weren’t significantly more likely to do any of it than other non-religious Americans.
When discussing their research, Tony Jones put it bluntly: “When someone says to you, ‘I’m spiritual but not religious,’ you have my permission to look at them with skepticism.”
The identity is real. The practice is not. They’re “aspirationally spiritual,” as Jones says — they want to be spiritual, they think of themselves as spiritual, but they haven’t actually built a spiritual life.
I find this both sobering and strangely hopeful. Sobering because it reveals how thin the spiritual lives of many Americans actually are. Hopeful because it suggests a hunger that hasn’t yet found its food.
Surprise #3: Pascal Was Probably Wrong
For centuries, Christian theology has rested on an assumption articulated most famously by Blaise Pascal: that every human being has a “God-shaped hole” — an infinite abyss that can only be filled by the Divine.
A third of all nones — about 33 million Americans — challenge that assumption directly.
The researchers call them “the Dones.” They’re done with religion. Done with spirituality. Done with God. They don’t pray (99% say “seldom or never”). They don’t attend services. They don’t yearn for transcendence.
And here’s the disorienting part: their well-being scores are nearly identical to practicing Christians.
They’re not miserable. They’re not searching. They’re not filling the void with something else. According to every metric the researchers could measure, they’re just... fine.
I don’t know what to do with this theologically. But I know I can’t ignore it. If we’re going to be honest about what’s happening in American spirituality, we have to reckon with 33 million people who don’t seem to have a God-shaped hole at all.
Surprise #4: The Loudest Voices Are the Smallest Group — And the Most Unhappy
If you spend any time online discussing religion, you’ve met the Zealous Atheists. They’re the ones who mock “sky daddy,” who invoke the Flying Spaghetti Monster, who seem eager to tell you why you’re deluded for believing in anything.
They dominate social media. They take up all the oxygen in public discourse about faith.
And they represent just 11% of the nones — about 3% of all Americans.
Here’s what the research reveals about them: they’re young (70% are under 45), they’re still somewhat engaged with religion (many attend services occasionally, perhaps with believing family members), and — this is the pastoral heartbreak — they’re the least satisfied with their lives of any group in the study.
They score lowest on meaning, purpose, self-worth, and hope. Lower than Christians. Lower than the Dones who’ve walked away peacefully. Lower than everyone.
Their war with religion hasn’t set them free. Something is wrong, and they’re in pain.
When I encounter an aggressive atheist online now, I find myself responding differently. Less defensively. More curious about the wound.
Surprise #5: There Is No Gen Z Revival
I wish I had better news here.
There’s been a lot of anecdotal buzz about young people returning to faith — TikTok videos of packed churches, stories of Gen Z discovering tradition, whispers of a revival on the horizon.
The data doesn’t support it.
“All talk of the supposed Gen Z revival is anecdotal,” Jones writes. “That massive and largely religious Boomer generation is dying, and there is no data to suggest that GenZers and Alphas are going to replace them one-for-one in the pews.”
This isn’t cause for despair. But it is cause for honesty. Whatever comes next for the church, it won’t be a return to the 1950s. The world has changed. The question is whether we’re paying attention. (Ryan and I discuss this with graphs here)
So What Do We Do With This?
I’ve been sitting with this research for weeks, and I keep coming back to a few things.
First, we need to stop treating “the nones” as a monolithic group. They’re not. Twenty million of them are praying and believing right now. Thirty-three million of them have moved on completely. Thirty-six million claim a spirituality they’re not actually practicing. And eleven million are fighting battles that seem to be making them miserable. These require very different responses.
Second, we need to focus our energy wisely. The NiNos — those 20 million functional believers without a home — might actually be reachable. That they lack a community and want one, is our problem and not theirs. The Dones are not coming back, and we shouldn’t pretend otherwise. The Zealous Atheists need compassion more than argument.
Third, we need to ask harder questions about ourselves. Why did 20 million praying, believing people decide they don’t belong with us? What are we offering — transformation or just tradition? Encounter with the living God or maintenance of an institution?
An Invitation
If you’re as fascinated by this research as I am — and as convinced that understanding it matters for the future of faith in America — I want to invite you to learn more.
Ryan Burge and Tony Jones are joining me for an online class called “The Rise of the Nones” that digs deep into this groundbreaking study. It’s a chance to explore the data, ask questions, and think together about what it means for our communities, our ministries, and our own spiritual lives.
I’ll be honest: some of what you learn will be uncomfortable. The God-shaped hole might not be universal. The spiritual-but-not-religious might be more aspirational than actual. The revival might not be coming.
But I’ve always believed that truth — even difficult truth — is more useful than comfortable illusions. And the truth about 100 million non-religious Americans is something we can no longer afford to ignore.
The world has changed, friends. Let’s learn how to meet it with open eyes and open hearts.
New Online Class Starting in January!
The Rise of the Nones: A 4-Week Online Course to Understand the Changing Spiritual Landscape
One-third of Americans now claim no religious affiliation. That’s 100 million people.
But here’s what most church leaders get wrong: they’re not all the same. Some still believe in God. Some are actively searching. Some are quietly indifferent. Some think religion is harmful.
Ryan Burge & Tony Jones have conducted the first large-scale survey of American “Nones”, which reveals 4 distinct categories—each requiring a different approach. Understanding the difference could transform everything from your ministry to your own spiritual quest.
Get info and join the donation-based class (including $0) by clicking the button below!
